Big Ten East Football Season Preview & Best Bets

(all betting odds provided are from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Indiana

Season win total: 4 Over: -120 Under: +100

The Hoosiers suffered a major letdown last year following a 6-2 record in 2020 and an 8-5 campaign in 2021. Indiana went 2-10 with those two wins coming against Idaho and Western Kentucky. The offense struggled mightily last season as they finished 124th in total offense with 290 yards per game. They finished one spot behind *checks notes* the mighty Minutemen of UMass. Obviously that is not going to cut it and with Michael Penix Jr. making his way to Washington, someone will need to step up and put the ball in the endzone. It looks like the QB competition has come down to Jack Tuttle or Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. Tuttle has appeared in 14 total games in three seasons for the Hoosiers while Bazelak started 20 games in the daunting SEC and put up decent numbers while doing it. Indiana lost their top two receivers last season so that won’t help out whoever wins the starting job. The defense was just as bad as the offense last season, if not worse. The defense will be a massive question mark as that part of the roster was a turnstile for the transfer portal. Last in the Big Ten in total sacks last year, UCLA transfer Myles Jackson and Cal transfer JH Tevis will look to help out in that area. The Hoosiers face a troubling conference schedule this season and it doesn’t get any easier in the non-conference with games against Cincinnati and Western Kentucky. This team does not look like a bowl bound team and would be fortunate to reach 4-5 wins; we will see if Head Coach Tom Allen’s Hoosiers can prove me wrong.

Maryland

Season win total: 6 Over: -125 Under: +105

The Terrapins finished their 2021 season with an unexpected 54-10 blowout over Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl. Head Coach Mike Locksley will hope that momentum carries into this year as they look to make back to back bowl games for the first time since 2013-14. Unlike previous years, Maryland went into this offseason with a clear-cut, veteran QB at the helm. Taulia Tagovailoa finally got things clicking with a 26 touchdown and almost 4,000 yard season; he also added 350 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Leading receiver Rakim Jarrett will be back and the Maryland offense does receive a boost in proven transfer Jacob Copeland. Dontay Demus Jr. was on a torrid pace last season before tearing his ACL, Tagovailoa would love to have him back at full strength this season. From a roster point of view, all five offensive line starters are expected to be back. This will be beneficial for whoever earns the snaps when the run game is called upon. The Terps only corralled six interceptions as a team last season and three of those were by Indianapolis Colts third round pick Nick Cross. Mosiah Nasili-Kite and Greg Rose will look to provide even more pressure on opposing quarterbacks to help cause a few more interceptions this season. The question will be, can Maryland use a favorable schedule to make another bowl game? The Terps will almost assuredly have to rack up some wins in the first part of the schedule as they have never beaten Ohio State and Wisconsin and have only beaten Michigan once and that was in 2014. This is a team that is looking to stay competitive in an extremely tough Big Ten East, we will see if Coach Locksley can pull an upset or two and put Maryland back on the map.

Michigan

Season win total: 9.5 Over: -135 Under: +115

Michigan had the season under Jim Harbaugh that fans have been longing for. Despite suffering defeat to Georgia in the College Football Playoff, Michigan celebrated a Big Ten Championship victory over Iowa and *finally* beating Ohio State. You ask Michigan fans which of those wins were more important and let me know what they say. Michigan ranked 20th nationally in scoring defense last year but are losing a lot of pieces including number two overall pick Aidan Hutchinson. Years of solid recruiting under Harbaugh finally played dividends last season and will continue to be beneficial in replacing their lost production. As of now, there has still not been a decision made on who will command this offense come week one. Cade McNamara was the main guy last year but some Wolverine fans think that J.J. McCarthy could turn this offense up a notch. Michigan has an extremely easy non-conference schedule so whoever ends up getting the nod should be able to settle in nicely. You know what else helps a quarterback get settled in? Having one of the best running back rooms in the Big Ten. Hassan Haskins is gone but Blake Corum is back, coming off a season where he was 38 yards away from giving Michigan two 1,000 yard rushers. Harbaugh has always gone with a plethora of running backs but look for Corum to put up Haskins-like numbers if he gets the same opportunity. No one receiver really stood out as the number one guy last year so we’ll see if anyone steps up this season. Maybe another year making the College Football Playoff will keep Jim Harbaugh’s sights off the NFL.

Michigan State

Season win total: 7.5 Over: -130 Under: +110

Head Coach Mel Tucker did a phenomenal job in his second year in East Lansing. It was no secret that he was not the top option following Mark Dantonio’s retirement. Many were left scratching their heads when Michigan State gave Tucker a 6 year contract at $5.5 million a year after his one year coaching at Colorado ended at 5-7. Those who supported the decision are still gloating after the Spartan’s 11-2 season that ended with a win over Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl. The 11-2 record truly is remarkable considering they finished the season 130th (dead last) in the entire nation in passing yards allowed. This obviously can’t happen this season if they want to replicate their success, especially in a conference where just about every team has a solid defense. What helped balance out the horrid passing defense was the front seven. The Spartans led the Big Ten in sacks and were 15th in the nation in rushing yards allowed. This defense could be one of the best in the country if the secondary can be just average. Current Seattle Seahawk Kenneth Walker had an unreal 2021 campaign and the Spartan offense will look to replace his production in a variety of ways. Quarterback Payton Thorne had a very solid season and is giving Michigan State their best starting quarterback since Connor Cook (sorry Brian Lewerke). The running back corps will be one of the best in the Big Ten once again and redshirt Senior receiver Jayden Reed will be Thorpe’s number one option. The Spartans schedule is very streaky this year with games against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan in three straight weeks; followed by Illinois Rutgers, and Indiana. If Sparty can come out of the Michigan game with a 6-2 record, watch out for another expectation-exceeding season from Mel Tucker and company.

Ohio State

Season win total: 10.5 Over: -270 Under: +215

Only Buckeye fans could be even slightly disappointed in a year where they went 11-2, won the Rose Bowl, but lost to Michigan for the first time since 2011. Yeah, that game kinda means a lot. Despite their second loss to Michigan in the last 20 years, Ryan Day continued to impress and has run his record at OSU to 34-4. The offense was stellar last season, the best in the entire country in fact. An astounding 561 yards and 45.7 points per game is what helped get the job done for the Buckeyes. They potentially have two top-5 picks in next year’s NFL Draft in QB C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This is presumably the best QB-WR duo in the entire country, and Stroud will be the first quarterback taken off the board barring any unforeseen circumstances. Smith-Njigba’s 15 catch, 347 yard, 3 touchdown game in the Rose Bowl alone could’ve gotten him drafted this year. You also can’t forget about TreVeon Henderson with his 1,200 yard, 15 touchdown 2021 campaign; this offense truly has it all. With all that being said, you knew the defense had to have some struggles for Ohio State to lose two games. The defense only gave up 23 points per game but gave up 35 and 42 in losses to Oregon and Michigan, respectively. The defense will have to be ready to play in these big games, and that starts with causing more disruption in the secondary. The defense hauled in a respectable 12 interceptions last season, but they let teams throw all over them in their losses and close wins. Ohio State has a big test to start the season with Notre Dame coming to town, the Buckeyes certainly don’t want to be playing catchup in the playoff rankings all season. Ohio State would love to be the 17th team in college football history to win the National Championship and have a Heisman Trophy winner in the same season.

Penn State

Season win total: 8.5 Over: -105 Under: -115

What started out as a promising season for Penn State quickly turned mediocre as the Nittany Lions spoiled a 5-0 start to finish 7-6 and with a bowl game loss. Penn State only managed to defeat Maryland and Rutgers down the stretch after their great start. College veteran Sean Clifford will be back under center in 2022, gone is the dynamic Jahan Dotson and his 12 touchdowns. Parker Washington will look to become the main target after a solid 64 catch, 820 yard season. The rushing attack will be an area of concern to start the season. The backfield duo of Noah Cain (now at LSU) and Keyvone Lee couldn’t even garner 1,000 total yards in over 200 carries. Of course it wasn’t all their fault as the offensive line was unable to keep defenders out of the backfield. The Nittany Lions O-line gave up 34 sacks last year and was 106th in the nation in tackles for loss allowed. Star corner Joey Porter Jr. will have his work cut out for him in the Big Ten this year but the projected early round draft pick is someone who could raise his stock even higher this year. Defense is what is going to make things go for Penn State this year. Last season, they were 7-1 in games where they gave up 20 points or fewer; and 0-5 when they gave up more than 20. Head Coach James Franklin has had a very accomplished tenure at Penn State but you know he would love to challenge Ohio State and Michigan for a spot in the Big Ten Championship game; a game he has only coached in once in his time at State College. It’s easy to see why Penn State can get the recruits they do when you see videos of their night game atmosphere at Beaver Stadium. It will take getting those recruits and more if they want to consistently challenge for the Big Ten East title.

Rutgers

Season win total: 4 Over: -115 Under: -115

Rutgers football has not enjoyed a winning season since 2014, but that isn’t going to stop Scarlet Knight fans from having some optimism heading into the 2022 campaign. Greg Schiano has amassed 5 conference wins in the last two seasons, which is more than they had in the previous five seasons combined. The daunting Big Ten conference presents a challenge for Rutgers year in and year out but here’s to hoping they can build off a bowl game appearance last season thanks to their Academic Progress Rate. Noah Vedral will be the starting quarterback in week one against Boston College and he is actually the leading returning rusher. Vedral only averaged 140 passing yards a game but Shameen Jones and a few transfers will look to help out on that end. Rutgers ranked 120th in the nation at 19.7 points per game and that is not going to get it done unless you have a lockdown defense. In case you were wondering if Rutgers had a lockdown defense, they did not. They gave up almost 400 yards per game and 6 yards per play. The secondary is admirable, and the defensive line needs work, but forcing turnovers is what is going to make a difference for the defense in 2022. The defense only forced 3 turnovers last year against teams not named Temple, Syracuse, or Indiana. Coach Schiano has the Scarlet Knights future looking a little brighter and maybe this season will be an indicator if Rutgers will ever be able to compete in the Big Ten.

Big Ten East Best Bets

Michigan State over 7.5 wins -130

This is another case where if the total was set slightly higher at 8, I wouldn’t even bother. But at 7.5 I will gladly lay the -130 for a Michigan State team that is supposed to be pretty good again. Payton Thorne looks primed to take his game to another level and the team went 11-2 despite being dead last in the entire country in passing yards allowed. You would think that gets fixed under Defensive Coordinator Scottie Hazelton this year, which could lead to a season that mirrors 2021. Their non-conference game at Washington will be what really gets this bet going as they are the better team but going all the way to the Pacific Northwest in an unfamiliar environment could be tricky. If the Spartans are to win that game and let's say they split the next two against Minnesota and Maryland, they are 4-1 to start the season. Even if they win just one game in the stretch of Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan to get them to 5-3; their next three games are against Illinois, Rutgers, and Indiana. I have the utmost faith in Mel Tucker to get the Spartans to at least 8 wins, if not more.

Penn State under 8.5 wins -115

I like the Nittany Lions to finish at exactly 8 wins this season. Of course if you had this exact bet last year, you were mighty nervous as Penn State soared to a 5-0 start just to finish with seven regular season wins. I have always been a fan of James Franklin but I think this team is more likely to finish near their floor than their ceiling. Quarterback Sean Clifford could be the one to prove me wrong if he were to have his best season as a NIttany Lion, but I feel like we’ve seen the best from him that we will see. The first five games will be very important as I think they have to be 4-1 going into the Michigan game if they want to make it to 9 wins. There are just too many tossups in this schedule for a team that needs to win 9 games to cash the bet so that’s why I’m hammering the under.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba to win the Heisman +3500

Look, any kind of future bet you want on The Ohio State you are not going to get very good odds on. It depends on what book you use but they are around +250 to win the National Championship and -375 to win the Big Ten championship. On top of that, C.J. Stroud is the favorite to win the Heisman at +200. I believe Jaxon Smith-Njiba has the ability to win the Heisman and I don’t mind putting a little something on his odds. We saw a wide receiver win it just two years ago with DeVonta Smith at Alabama. It would obviously be difficult for Smith-Njigba to win it without C.J. Stroud having a better chance but I think it’s possible if Stroud throws to Smith-Njigba as much as we think he will. We saw the possibility in the Rose Bowl with his all-time monster performance. Including the Rose Bowl, he totaled 958 receiving yards in his last five games. If you’re looking to bet on someone that isn’t currently a favorite, I think this is your guy. Let’s hope this projected top 5 pick will be in New York when the winner is announced.