Big Ten West Football Season Preview

(all betting odds provided are from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Illinois

Season win total: 4.5 Over: -125 Under: +105

Illinois is coming off a 5-7 campaign in the 2021-22 season. Former Wisconsin and Arkansas Head Coach, Bret Bielema, will be looking to lead the Fighting Illini to their first bowl game victory since 2011. A big reason for optimism in Champaign this year is the arrival of former Syracuse Quarterback, Tommy DeVito, via the transfer portal. In DeVito’s best season as a member of the Orange, he amassed 2,630 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. All of these numbers would be a vast upgrade over the quarterbacks that the Illini have been able to produce over the last several seasons. When the passing game can’t get it going, Bielema will be expecting some production from his solid running back duo in Chase Brown and Josh McCray. The two combined for 1,554 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns last season. For a team that ranked 29th in college football last year allowing 22 points per game, having a consistent offensive output could lead to a much improved season for Illinois. Although fans shouldn’t be hopeful for a reboot of their magical 2007 Rose Bowl season at the hands of Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall, there is reason for hope that the Fighting Illini can finish with a winning record for the first time since 2019.

Iowa

Season win total: 7.5 Over: -105 Under: -115

The Hawkeyes impressive 2021 campaign ended in disappointment with a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship and coming up short to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. But Iowa will do what Iowa usually does, and that’s retool to put together another winning season. Quarterback Spencer Petras will look to rebound after an average season where he threw for less than 2,000 yards and 9 interceptions compared to 10 touchdowns. Junior Alex Padilla will be looking to take the starting job if Petras can’t produce. Iowa was 12th in the nation last year in scoring defense. Senior Joe Evans and Sophomore Lukas Van Ness combined for 14 sacks and 15.5 TFL and Iowa will need that continued defensive production with the question marks at quarterback. Another question mark for the Hawkeyes is their offensive line. In most years you can count on Iowa to have some veteran brutes up front protecting the QB and opening up holes for their running back; but this year the Hawkeyes are very young up front with at least three sophomores slated to start the opening game. Head Coach Kirk Ferentz is not accustomed to losing, which is obvious considering he hasn’t had a losing season since 2012. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the team heading into this season, we can all fully expect Coach Ferentz to have Iowa vying for a shot at another Big Ten West championship.

Minnesota

Season win total: 7.5 Over: +100 Under: -120

Head Coach PJ Fleck has had a solid tenure at Minnesota, but you have to feel like this season is very close to “make or break”. The higher ups at Minnesota can’t hate his 35-23 record but the 21-22 mark in conference play leaves much to be desired. Who can forget the Golden Gophers awful loss at home to a horrendous Bowling Green team early last season. Defense will not be a problem for Minnesota in 2022, coming off a year where they were 6th in the nation in scoring defense and ranked in the top 10 in various other defensive categories. Sixth year Senior Tanner Morgan will once again be in charge of the Gopher offense. Morgan is 27-12 in his career at Minnesota which is the most wins by a quarterback in school history. It has been three years since Morgan’s 30 touchdown and 3,000+ yard season. A lot of Minnesota’s success will be reliant on if he can find that magic again. Ky Thomas will look to replicate 824 yards on the ground last season in the wake of Mohamed Ibrahim’s achilles injury. Ibrahim is the true wildcard for this Minnesota team because if he can regain his form before the injury, this offense has a chance to turn some heads. The defense lost their leading tackler last year in Jack Gibbens, but did some work in the transfer portal to make up for other losses on the defense. Minnesota’s favorable schedule could have them feeling confident come November. Iowa has bested Minnesota seven straight seasons and the Gophers will need to put an end to that losing streak if they want to seriously contend for an appearance in the Big Ten Championship game.

Nebraska

Season win total: 7.5 Over: +100 Under: -120

No season preview for Nebraska is complete without highlighting how many close losses they suffered last season. Lost by 8 to Illinois, 7 to Oklahoma, 3 to Michigan State, 3 to Michigan, 7 to Minnesota, 7 to Wisconsin, and 7 to Iowa. Hell, White even lost to Red by 1 in the spring game. Although blood pressure was rising amongst fans in Lincoln last year, belief in Scott Frost was rapidly dropping. Frost is a miserable 15-29 in his four years at Nebraska, including an 0-14 record against ranked opponents. Safe to say, Frost is on the hot seat. Texas transfer Casey Thompson will look to make that seat a little cooler. Thompson left a crowded quarterback room at Texas to replace longtime starting QB Adrian Martinez, who left for Kansas State. Martinez has been the staple of the Huskers offense for the last four years, so someone will have to step up and help Thompson carry that load. Incoming wide receiver transfers from LSU, Texas, and New Mexico State will certainly help as Omar Manning (380 yards), is the leading returner. Nebraska finished 36th in the country in scoring defense against a tough Big Ten schedule, but their problem was forcing turnovers. The Huskers defense only forced 13 turnovers the entire season. Leading sack-man and tackles for loss-getter Garrett Nelson will look to cause more disruption from the Nebraska defense this upcoming season. For a team that wants to avoid as many close losses as Nebraska had last year, you have to have a consistent kicking game - and 8 for 16 isn’t going to cut it. There are currently six kickers listed on the Huskers roster so maybe one of them will stick. Hopefully for Scott Frost, his job won’t come down to whether a few kicks in the midwest Winter are converted or not.

Northwestern

Season win total: 4 Over: +100 Under: -120

One year removed from a Big Ten Championship loss to Ohio State and an Outback Bowl victory against Auburn, the Wildcats finished up with a porous 3-9 campaign. This matched the worst season in the Pat Fitzgerald era, they also went 3-9 in 2019. Let’s start at the position with the most uncertainty, the quarterback. Northwestern has been able to produce some impressive signal-callers in recent years but last season was more of a struggle. South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski stepped into a difficult situation and threw for just under 1,000 yards and 3 touchdowns, compared to 4 interceptions. It will be interesting to see what Coach Pat Fitzgerald does but considering Hilinski is the only QB on the roster to ever take a collegiate snap, I doubt we see anyone else under center in game one. Northwestern plays the first game of the entire FBS season on August 27th against Nebraska in Dublin, so any decisions that need to be made will come sooner than any other team. One position that the Wildcats won’t have any concern over is the running backs. Evan Hull put together a 1,000 yard season and there are other running backs such as Isaiah Bower and Drake Anderson who will compliment him well. The running back room will also get back Cameron Porter who showed lots of promise in the 2020 season before suffering a season-ending injury. Unlike many other Big Ten programs, Northwestern is not ranked highly for their defense. In fact, they ranked 101st last season in total yards given up per game and 89th in scoring defense allowing an average of 29 points per game. The defensive line will need to replace a lot of their starters and it looks like the coaches mostly dipped into the transfer pool to fill those holes. The secondary could be an underrated part of this defense in 2022. I like AJ Hampton Jr. to take the next step for this defense and provide a breakout season. Northwestern has a favorable non-conference schedule so maybe that will kickstart them into potentially achieving a bowl game appearance.

Purdue

Season win total: 7.5 Over: +100 Under: -120

Jeff Brohm was rewarded with an extension through the 2027 season after an impressive 9-4 campaign that included wins over #2 Iowa and #3 Michigan State. After a sub-par 12-19 record the three previous seasons, Purdue showed they can compete in the Big Ten West under Brohm. Aidan O’Connell will be the starting quarterback this year coming off his best season as a Boilermaker. In an offense that has moved the ball through the air more in recent years, O’Connell has the ability to air it out and be a very accurate passer in the process. He will have to find another main playmaker at the wide receiver position as David Bell left for the NFL after a 1,286 yard and 6 touchdown season. Milton Wright was projected to be one of those playmakers but he is academically ineligible and will likely miss the entire season. The Boilermakers do have a quality receiving threat at tight end in Payne Durham, you may remember him for his unreal touchdown in last year’s Music City Bowl. Durham and some younger, unproven guys will need to step up for this offense. On the defensive side of the ball, this squad was 34th in the nation in scoring defense but just 7th in the Big Ten. This does speak to how tough the defenses are in the Big Ten but also how much better Purdue has to be if they want to compete for a championship. This offense is more than satisfactory under Offensive Coordinator Brian Brohm, so if the defense could take it up another level, Purdue could find themselves atop the Big Ten standings. Purdue’s biggest deficiency on defense was their rushing defense, allowing 158 rushing yards per game which was down at 77th in the nation. Purdue was gashed on the ground last season in their losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State and they will need to improve stuffing the run if they want to beat these perennial Big 10 powers.

Wisconsin

Season win total: 8.5 Over: -145 Under: +125

Defense, defense, defense. Is there another program in the country where you think about defense more than the Wisconsin Badgers? 4th in scoring defense, 3rd in third down defense, 1st in first down defense, 1st in rushing defense, 1st in total defense, should I go on? I won’t, but you get the point. The strongest part of this defense is the line. Isaiah Mullens and Keeanu Benton will help form the wall that is this rushing defense. The Badgers received a number of transfers to reinforce their secondary that was number one in the Big Ten in passing deficiency last year. Looking at the offensive side of the ball, Junior Graham Mertz looks to improve on a below average season where he passed for 1,821 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. On a team with an exceptional defense and great running backs, all Mertz has to do is not turnover the ball and he will be doing his job for Wisconsin. Speaking of those running backs, Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi combined to run for over 2,000 yards last season on a team that averaged over 200 rushing yards per game. This running back duo is legit and they will be running behind an experienced and talented offensive line. After reading this preview you might think, does this team ever lose? How many national championships have they won? Well the answer is yes and one, in 1942. The Badgers haven’t won the Big Ten since 2012 and haven’t won the Rose Bowl since 1999. To me, this team’s success will run through Graham Mertz. Can he perform at a high enough level that this defense can carry them to a Big Ten Championship and maybe even a College Football Playoff appearance? We will find out come December.

Big Ten West Best Bets

Nebraska Under 7.5 wins -120

It appears that Vegas is finally believing in Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers after four miserable years at the helm, but I personally do not. Do I think this will be the best year Frost has had for Nebraska? Absolutely. But I think 8 wins is too high of a projection for this team. Despite the struggles, we are yet to see the Huskers without Adrian Martinez in a while and there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Texas transfer Casey Thompson, assuming he starts. I could see this team starting as good as 5-1 assuming they beat Northwestern, Indiana, and Rutgers. I don’t believe they will win any of their last three games against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa; so can they reach 8 wins before then? I say no, place that under bet.

Northwestern Over 4 wins +100

I believe that Ryan Hilinski is capable of being a quality quarterback in the Big Ten, this is a big driving force behind this bet. I also like the favorable schedule for the Wildcats. Their defense needs work but they have lots of talent at the running back position. If this number was at 5 or even 4.5, I would stay away; but I think at the worst you are getting a push here. Home games to start the season against Duke, Southern Illinois, and Miami (OH) could see the WIldcats starting 3-0. Who's to say they can’t pull out the win against Nebraska on a neutral field in Ireland where all of the pressure is on the Huskers? I also like at Maryland and Senior Day against Illinois as good chances for Northwestern to grab another win. If they could steal a win against any of their other opponents and make this an easy cashed bet for us all, I wouldn’t hate that either.

Wisconsin to win Big Ten Championship Game +1100

If you want to have a futures bet from the West side of the Big Ten, it has to be this one. You get slightly worse odds on this bet than for Wisconsin to make the College Football Playoff (+1100). Also, there’s no real threat among these teams to compete for the Heisman trophy. First and foremost, I think Wisconsin wins the Big Ten West. The defense may not be as unbelievably good as it was last year, but it will still be quite good. To me, Iowa is not going to be able to hold it together long enough to give the Badgers a run at their side of the conference. I see Spencer Petras as a similar quarterback talent-wise as Graham Mertz, just without the supporting cast and stout defense. You’d prefer not to see Ohio State on the other side of Lucas Oil Stadium in December if you’re a holder of this ticket, but there is always the possibility that Wisconsin could face Michigan or Penn State. I think this could be the year that the Badgers win their first Big Ten Championship game since 2012.