BMW Championship Preview

The BMW Championship

Course: Wilmington Country Club (Wilmington, DE)

Background:

It has been a long and exhausting PGA Tour season, but we have finally made it. In my opinion, this is a top 3 PGA Tour event of the year. It has been a year of contention between PGA & LIV which has worn down both the players & bettors alike. But a long year deserves decent rewards, and the FedEx Cup offers that in its $15m prize. Outside of the four majors, the Players, and Riviera, arguments can be made for Kapalua, Bay Hill, and Muirfield Village as the 3rd biggest PGA event, but I would argue that the rotating BMW Championship has delivered better fields and better venues over the past 5 years. The 2022 edition will again feature a top-class field of the top 70, with real stakes (4x FEx Cup Points leading into the $15M finale), on a new architectural challenge. I don’t give the PGA Tour many compliments for choosing architecturally interesting choices, but the BMW has delivered great golf courses for several years in a row and I expect Wilmington CC to continue that trend.

The Course:

Wilmington Country Club. A Robert Trent Jones Sr. 1959 original; renovated by Andrew Green in 2021. This course is a mid-modern gem that has garnered tons of praise, but 2020 tornado devastation led to a 2021 renovation that brought it to a Tour-ready level. It will play as a par 71 around 7,350 yards, with bent grass through the fairways and greens. The course features 2 extremely long par 5s (the 640 yd 12th & 650 yd 14th) that make the 7,350 scorecard yardage appear longer than it will actually play for the pros. That extra yardage is counteracted by 4 very score-able par 4s that will play under 420 yards.

Styles:

Recent BMW history proves absolutely nothing with winning scores of -27, -4, and -25 by Cantlay, Rahm, and JT, respectively, over the last 3 years. With that wide variation of scoring and a strong field of 70, I’m looking to target any undervalued players with high win equity. It always seems that top-flight players win these limited field WGC & playoff events (last 5 winners of this event are Cantlay, Rahm, JT, Keegan, DJ, Day), so I won’t reach far down the oddsboard.

Picks:

Jon Rahm 14-1

You will come to see that I am a gambler on good odds on great players. For a recent world #1 coming in at 14-1 odds off of a T5, I can’t pass this up. Rahm has had a difficult year by his standards, but he’s still arguably the best player in the world, he’s in form, and he’s desperate to make something out of this season. I think the $15m FedEx Cup sounds good for a soon-to-be father of two.

Collin Morikawa 22-1

Going with another player coming off of a T5 finish at TPC Southwind, and another player that can easily be argued as the best in the world despite an admittedly poor season. In interviews this week he has claimed that his patented fade is back & he is ditching the claw putting grip, which would be enough for me to take him at much shorter odds coming off of an impressive top 5 performance. I don’t have much to say for him as a course fit, but I believe his iron game competes anywhere, and give me a little confidence in that fairway-finding draw off the tee, he’s an auto-bet at 22-1.

Cameron Young 28-1

This is the PGA Tour rookie of the year who may find a bit of extra motivation following his college roommate, Will Zalatoris’ first win last week at TPC Southwind. He is a perfect course fit. His length off the tee and accuracy from inside of 120 yards should lead to plenty of birdie opportunities on the 2 lengthy par 5s & 4 short par 4s at Wilmington CC, and I believe a few summer showers would play even more into his favor. He has consistently proven himself in the biggest events this season (2nd at Riviera, T3 at the PGA Championship, and 2nd at the US Open), and I expect him to be in the mix again at one of the Tour’s premiere events.

Good luck to everyone this week. I’m hoping Wilmington CC puts on a show.

RM