Fortinet Championship Picks (Bonus LIV, LPGA, DPWT bets)

After the shortest offseason in professional sports, the PGA Tour is back for the beginning of the fall swing at the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California. Formerly known as the Safeway Open, this will be played at the Silverado Springs North Course, which, in my opinion, lacks any notable features. Just know that this is a birdie-fest; the winning scores over the last 3 seasons have been -17, -21, and -19.

The fall swing is drowned out by football on the weekends, but can provide some extreme value for bettors due to weak fields and high-odds winners. The Fortinet itself has returned winners at the below odds over the last 3 seasons:

2021 – Homa @ 66-1

2020 – Cink @ 200-1

2019 – Champ @ 150-1

Across the entire fall season, I will look to target 1) undervalued Korn-Ferry Tour graduates who have just joined the PGA Tour, and 2) lesser-known PGA Tour pros who have been in good form and are looking for a breakout season (see Max Homa at the Fortinet in 2021). 

My Picks:

Justin Suh 55-1

Justin Suh has been on my radar for a while. He had an incredible amateur career including a stint at #1 in the WAGR while he played at USC. He was dominant throughout the KFT season, finishing 7th place in points. He followed that up with a win at the KFT finals 2 weeks ago to lock up top status amongst all graduates. I expect him to carry that momentum into the PGA tour season and wouldn’t be surprised to see him at the Tour Championship next summer.

Taylor Montgomery 50-1

Taylor Montgomery missed out on a PGA Tour card by 1 spot in 2021. He came back with a vengeance in 2022 and put together an impressive year, finishing 5th in season points and 13th in playoff points (including 2 top 10s in his last 2 starts). He’s another KFT grad that I expect to make some noise on thee Tour and I’m not going to miss out on him at 50-1.

Patrick Rodgers 75-1

Rodgers is perennially one of the best ball strikers on Tour who is still looking for his first Tour win. He had the most consistent year of his career last year and he had a T6 at the Fortinet in 2021. That’s enough for me at 75-1 in this field.

Brandon Wu 110-1

Wu had a solid rookie year on Tour that was overshadowed by the performances of rookies Cam Young, Davis Riley, and Sahith Theegala. Wu posted 5 top 10s in his rookie year, including an appearance in the final group at the Wyndham and a T6 in a loaded Scottish Open field over the summer. I think he improves on his rookie season this year, and will take a shot on him here at 110-1.

Michael Kim 125-1

Michael Kim is one of the most random PGA Tour winners of all time coming out of nowhere to win the JD Classic a few years ago in the midst of a run of MCs. He followed that win up with 2 years of bad golf and lost his tour card when his exemptions ran out. However, he found something this summer, posting 4 top 10s in the final 5 events of the KFT season to regain his PGA Tour Card. He can run hot and he’s one of only a few guys in this field to actually cross the finish line in a Tour event, so I’ll take a chance on him here.

Will Gordon 150-1

Will Gordon was a darling of the betting world during his rookie year due to a couple of close calls at high odds. He won the first event of the KFT playoffs in Boise to secure his return to the PGA tour and he has 3 top 5s in his last 5 KFT starts. He’s a grinder and I will look to bet him throughout the fall if his odds stay in this range or higher.

Bonus Picks:

Italian Open

Lucas Herbert 50-1

Rasmus Hojgaard 50-1

Min Woo Lee 55-1

Same reasoning for all 3 of these guys: they are great players, proven winners, and have played a majority of their golf in Europe. Their odds are being boosted due to the strength of this field which features Rory, Fitzpatrick, Hovland, and Hatton. I like betting these DPWT guys who are usually priced much lower when those 4 Tour players don’t show up.

LIV Chicago

Matt Wolff 30-1

It’s hard to find value in these top-heavy LIV fields so I’ll roll with a world-class talent at 30-1 in Wolff who has shown flashes of a return to form in his last 2 LIV events.

LPGA Portland Classic

Yealimi Noh 60-1

Noh was on a rise to stardom in 2019 & 2020 before losing form in late 2021 and throughout 2022. But she’s still only 21 and seems to have found something over her last 2 events where she posted top 20s after a string of missed cuts. When she was playing well in ’19 & ’20 she finished 2nd and 3rd in Portland, respectively. 

Maria Fassi 100-1

Fassi showed so much promise as an amateur, which self-admittedly put a ton of pressure on her early in her career. But, she had her first appearance in a final group last weekend in Cincinnati which led to her best career LPGA finish (3rd). I’ll hope she keeps that momentum going and gets the job done this week.

Lets cash some winners this week.

-RM