Houston Open Picks, Bets, Preview (Bonus LPGA Pelican Championship Preview)

The Course: Memorial Park in Houston, Texas

• Par 70 – 7,400 yards

• The course plays every bit of the scorecard yardage. It has 5 par 3’s and 3 par 5’s, so 7,400 yards is a pretty lengthy setup. 6 of the 10 par 4’s are longer than 450 yards, so scoring on holes of that length will be key. I will look to target players that have good approach game with the long irons.

• The greens are Bemudagrass and very large. This will make it easier to hit greens from the long approach shots, but it will make 3 putt avoidance a key stat.

• Also, due to the sheer length of the course, there will be plenty of missed greens and scrambling will be key. Strokes gained: around the greens will be another key stat this week.

• Golf in Texas is generally windy. This weeks forecast looks relatively calm, but it has reportedly been a dry fall in Houston, so I still expect the course to be firm and fast.

• All of the above factors have made Memorial Park very difficult. Past winners on this layout were Kokrak at -10 in 2021 and Carlos Ortiz at -13 in 2020. I expect similar scoring this year in the -10 to -15 range, but wind could make it play even more difficult. The test of golf may not be major championship level, but its almost as close as it gets on the PGA tour.

Method & Model

This is a new section this week. I think it will be helpful going forward to discuss the key stats & methodology I look at for each event.

This week, I am keying on the following stats:

• Par 70 scoring

• Scoring on long (>7,400 yard) courses

• SG: Approach

• Proximity from >200 yards

• SG: Around the green

• SG: putting on bermudagrass

• 3-putt avoidance

• Recent form: last 12 rounds

Picks (all outrights to win 20u unless otherwise stated)

Taylor Montgomery 30-1

The Korn Ferry Tour darling of last year continues to perform. He leads all players in the field in strokes gained over the fall swing and has delivered finishes of T10, T13, T15, and T9 this fall. He is in the early lead for rookie of the year, and I am not going to miss his first win.

Sahith Theegala 55-1

This is a buy-low situation on Sahith. People were betting him at odds of 20-1 two months ago in the Fortinet. In this field, I think 55-1 is just too generous. He hasn’t played in a few weeks, but he has a top 5 finish in the fall, and I can see his iron play carrying him here. I generally am cautious of Sahith due to his tendency to get wild off the tee, but hitting fairways should be generous at Memorial so I’m not too concerned.

Keith Mitchell 55-1

I was not at all surprised to see Killa Keith pop in my key stat models. He lead all players in this field in SG: Off the tee last season and was 4th in driving distance and 8th in approach. His distance should set him up for some shorter approaches than most of this field. With his accuracy off the tee, I think he will be able to attack pins with short clubs from the fairway where others will be hitting shots into the middle of greens. His putting can be a concern, but he is a firecracker who can rattle off 10 birdies in a round if he gets the flatstick going.

Harris English 70-1

This could be a curse – every time I bet Harris this year he comes DFL. But he keeps flashing every time I don’t bet him. He lurked around the leaderboard last week before a disappointing T32 finish. He pops in my key stats, he’s top 20 in this field in approach from >200, around the green, and 3 putt avoidance. He is a grinder, and those stats lead me to believe he can avoid bogeys on this track. If he was at his peak he would be less than 20-1 in this field, so I will back him again hoping for a peak-Harris performance at 70-1.

Sepp Straka 80-1

Sepp Straka has continued his coming out party this fall with a 2nd place finish at the Sanderson. When I think of Sepp Straka I think of crisp long irons and flashy short game; the stats back that up and this feels like a place where Straka will compete. He also has good course history here with a T5 at Memorial Park in fall of 2020. I don’t know if the books know something I don’t, but this seems like an egregious line error, so I will happily fall into a trap this week with the Septic Tank.

Danny Willett 110-1

I love backing Danny Willett on difficult tracks. He makes a ton of pars and is a grinder. He can also serve as a bit of an insurance bet in case of high winds as he’s one of the best wind players in the world. He choked away the Fortinet to Max Homa in the first event of the fall and finished T21 last week in Mayakoba, so he’s playing some good golf, and he rates out 7th in my key stats model. 110-1 is too good to pass up.

Bonus LPGA Pelican Championship Bets

Due to the dominant play from Lydia Ko and Brooke Henderson thought the fall and their phenomenal course history, we are getting some juicy odds this week. I love the following 3 bets for value:

Nelly Korda 18-1

What more needs to be said than Nelly Korda at 18-1 odds. This is a steal. 4th in her last start and 1st in this event last year. I think this is the best value bet we will get all season.

Yuka Saso 35-1

Yuka has flashed some form this fall after a sleepy 2022 season. She has an 8th and a 2nd in her last 3 starts. 35-1 feels like a good deal on a player of her caliber.

Jin Young Ko 40-1

I understand why Jin Young is priced at 40-1 this week. She is battling injuries and maybe some mental demons. I never thought I’d see her shoot an 80, but she did in her last event. She has only played 3 times in the past 3 months, and those starts resulted in 2 missed cuts and a withdrawal. But maybe some time off has been good for her to make improvements on swing changes she implemented over the summer. She’s still the #2 ranked player in the world despite the past 3 months and is an auto-bet at 40-1 for me.

Let’s hit 2 winners this week.

RM