NFL Week 9 Best Bets

Peter Cornell (14-7 record)

Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs Carolina Panthers

The Cincinnati Bengals got romped last week in prime time on Monday night in Cleveland. To add on top of that the Bengals lost their best corner to injury for the year in Awuzie and had a few other guys get banged up in the process. This is not enough to keep me off of the Bengals here. Joe Burrow is one of the best QB's in the league coming off of a loss with a 12-4 record ATS. To sweeten that even more, Joe is 8-1 ATS when coming off of a game where the Bengals score less than 20 in the loss. This is a bounce back spot against a bottom 5 team in the league in the Panthers. I think the Bengals take this one 27-16 in their last game before the bye.

Atlanta Falcons Team Total Over 23.5 points

The Falcons have been a revelation this year with how well they have played. They are 4-4 which is good enough to be in first of the NFC South. This line right here just doesn't make much sense to me at all. The Falcons in 4 homes so far this year would be 3-1 against this number with the only lose being against Cleveland when they scored 23 points. The Chargers defense on top of this has been pretty bad this year giving up 6 yards a carry on the ground (worst in the league). Big man in the middle Jerry Tillery is out today coupled with a few other guys like Bosa and Jackson out for the year or at least till the ladder part of the season. I just dont see the 1st place Falcons being stopped here at home. I see a final of 27-26 Falcons. Take the Over.

AJ Dillon Over 39.5 Rush Yards (-115)

AJ Dillon along with Aaron Jones have been a pretty solid backfield so far this year for the Packers. The problem is they cant really stop anyone on defense and the passing game with Rodgers has just been off with all of the non factor receivers they have. This week they have a favorable matchup facing the Detroit Lions who bolster the worst defense in the NFL. The Lions give up almost 5.25 yards per carry so far this year which ranks 4th worst in the league. Dillon's rushing YPG so far this year has been 44.5 and I am not entirely sure why this number is set at 39.5 with the matchup at hand. I expect the Packers to run the football and play action off of that. Dillon breaks at least 1 run of 20+ yards and we get there pretty easy. Take the Over.

Henry Porter (12-9 record)

Miami Dolphins/Chicago Bears over 44.5

Justin Fields is starting to look more and more like a starting QB in the NFL. The Bears are not as hapless on offense as they have been in years past; their 62 combined points the last two weeks is evidence of that. Although he might not have a significant role this week, new addition Chase Claypool gives Fields another throwing option. On the other side of the ball, Tua is back and the Dolphins are putting up points again. I think Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will have their way with this Bears defense that almost gave up a 50 burger to Dallas last week. And unlike years past, Chicago has an offense that has the potential to keep up with them. Dolphins get it done on the road and cash the over, 30-24.

Buffalo Bills/New York Jets under 47

The Jets have surprised just about anyone watching the NFL this year. Unfortunately for them, rookie running back Breece Hall went down with a season-ending injury just as he was starting to put up big numbers. I fear that without some quick maturation from Zach Wilson, this offense could remain stagnant for the rest of the season. The Bills offense is the main worry when it comes to this under but the Jets actually have a defense that could give Josh Allen fits for the first time in awhile. Buffalo unders are 6-1 on the season while Jets unders are 5-3. I think a Zach Wilson turnover prevents at least one or two drives from ending in scores and the Jets defense plays tough at MetLife. Give me the Bills in a low scoring affair, 24-14.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you told me you predicted both teams would have a losing record coming into this Week 9 matchup, you'd be a liar. Tom Brady has been disappointing on and off the field in what could be his last year in Tampa, if not the league. The Rams are clearly suffering from a Super Bowl hangover and were neck and neck in the Christian McCaffrey sweepstakes with the 49ers, and for could reason. Both of these teams still have good defenses but have struggled to score. At some point, Brady and the Bucs will have a get right week, but I don't think it's against the Rams. I'm not that confident in picking a winner so I will take the Rams plus the points in what is a toss up to me.