Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks, Bets, Preview

Welcome back! The 2023 golf season kicks off this week with the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii. After the sleepy fall season that is drowned out by football and golf’s short offseason, the whales and waves of Hawaii are always a welcome sight while the majority of the country is inside staying warm. Add a great golf course and a primetime viewing slot, and this always becomes one of the most enjoyable events of the year.

One of the few things that the PGA Tour does really well is the Hawaii swing. Its great to get all of the best players in the world together to kick off the new year, and a trip to Hawaii for a no-cut event is a great reward for all of the Tour winners from the past season. The players love this event, and not necessarily for the golf; all of the wives & families are in town for a vacation this week. This year, the TOC has been given “elevated” status as part of the PGA Tour’s revamped schedule, meaning that we have a $20 million dollar purse on the line.

The Course: The Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina, Hawaii

• Par 73 -- 7,600 yards

• This is the only course on the tour that plays to a par 73, featuring 4 par 5’s and only 3 par 3’s, which has led to Kapalua playing as the easiest course on Tour in back-to-back seasons.

• It is a total birdie fest. Last year, Cam Smith won at -34 and wasn’t the only player to get to -30 or better. But do not confuse this with your usual birdie-fest on Tour. While it is primarily drivers and wedges for the Pros, it features the greatest elevation changes of any course on tour. This puts players in positions where uncomfortable shots are required off of uneven lies.

• The wind can also play a major role in Hawaii. The course is very exposed and a week of high winds could bring the winning score closer to -20 than -30.

• These are the biggest greens on Tour. While missing a green can leave a difficult up-and-down, if your outright bets is missing more than a few of these massive greens per round, then he has no chance to get to -30 and win anyway. Therefore, I’m completely tossing SG: Around the Green out of my models this week.

• Obviously any time scores get this low, you need a hot putter to win. This can be hard to predict, but experience on these greens is huge. The greens have tons of break and prior knowledge that everything breaks towards the ocean is key. I will be factoring in putting in my model this week, and specifically, putting at Kapalua.

• Off the tee, you just can’t drive it off the planet. The fairways are massive, but if you miss them, you are either giving up a ton of distance in a bunker, or you have driven it into a ravine and must re-tee. Therefore, driving accuracy is sneaky important here, and lots of the balls in the fairway funnel into the same spots no matter how far you’ve driven it.

• Course History – A few guys have just figured this place out, and these leaderboards often look similar every year. Jon Rahm has 5 top 10s & two runner ups in 5 attempts. Xander has a 1st, 2nd, and 5th in the last 4 years. JT has 2 wins and 5 top 5s in the last 6 years. Avoid these guys at your own peril.

Method & Model

Based on the above, I am keying on the following stats this week:

• SG: Off the Tee

• SG: Approach

• Kapalua Course History

• Birdies or better gained

• Driving Accuracy / Fairways Gained

• Short par 4 scoring (<400 yards)

Picks (all outrights to win 20u unless otherwise stated)

Collin Morikawa 18-1

I am expecting a huge year from Collin Morikawa and think he could start off with a bang here in Hawaii. He’s played Kapalua 3 times and has results of 5th, 7th, and 7th. He has gained strokes off the tee in 11 of his 12 rounds on the plantation course. He is 1st in SG: OTT, 2nd in strokes gained approach, and 1st in driving accuracy amongst all of the players in the field over those 12 rounds at Kapalua. The putter just hasn’t run hot enough for him to win, but he is a streaky putter and we know that he is capable of it. Let’s hope he’s learned something on these greens and can turn it around this week because 18-1 is decent value in this short field.

Sungjae Im 20-1

Sungjae is giving it his 3rd run at Kapaulua this week after an 8th and a 5th in his first two tries. Similar to Morikawa, Sungjae has gained strokes off-the-tee in 7 of his 8 rounds at Kapalua and ranks 2nd in the field over that span. He ranks 4th in SG: Approach over the same span here. He also fits two important golf trends that can’t be put in a model: 1) He is recently married, and 2) he is coming off of a strong performance at the President’s Cup. We often see newlyweds and new fathers win on Tour, and we often see International stars launch breakout seasons following the President’s cup. Congrats to Sungjae!

Tom Kim 25-1

Speaking of Presidents Cup stars, I will be backing Tom Kim here. He is making his debut at Kapalua, but I believe the course will suit his game. He can get as hot as anyone on Tour (look no further than his front nine 27 in the final round at Wyndham), and he ranks 5th in the field in Birdies or Better gained over his last 50 rounds. He is 31st of 39 in the field in SG: OTT over the last 50 rounds, but this is all due to distance, as he is 1st in Fairways Gained over that same time span. I am valuing accuracy over distance this week, so this isn’t a concern for me. Finally, I believe Tom Kim has what it takes to be #1 in the world. He had 2 wins in 13 starts in his first “full” season on tour. He’s got the 11th shortest odds in a field of 39 players. Auto-bet for me.

Good luck to everyone this week. Let’s start the new year off with a winner.

RM