Week 10 College Football Best Bets

Roger Murdock (17-10 record)

Texas Tech/#7 TCU Over 69

It's a Big 12 game between two Texas teams; take the over. Texas Tech plays at an incredibly high pace. They want to get out and run and TCU will have no problem keeping up. Max Duggan is having a great year and outside threat Quentin Johnston will be making noise on Sundays soon. 69 points won't be nearly enough, I think this one gets in the 80s or even 90s.

UMass/UConn Under 41

Take everything from the TCU/Texas Tech write-up above and flip it. These are two of the worst college football programs of the last decade. They have both been under-machines this year, with the under coming in on 7 of their last 8 games combined. This will be a disgusting football game that you couldn't pay me to watch and I'd be shocked if either team breaks 20.

#1 Tennessee +8 @ #2 Georgia

This is the biggest game on the calendar this year and Tennessee is getting too many points. In my opinion, Tennessee should be favored on a neutral site, so 8 points is too high at any field in the country. The Vols offense is the best I've seen in college this year and although UGA's defense is stout, their secondary is their weakness. They are banged up and missing depth in the secondary in a game where they will need to shut down two of the best receivers in the nation. UGA's offense will not be able to keep up. It's a bit of a tired narrative at this point, but Stetson Bennett just isn't that good. There is a difference in scoring lots of points in blowouts and scoring lots of points when there is pressure to score every possession. I think Tennessee wins this one outright 38-31, but I will happily take the 8 point.

Peter Cornell (11-13-3 record)

#4 Clemson -3.5 @ Notre Dame

This line just doesn't make that much sense to me. I know Notre Dame looked good last week with a dominant W @ Syracuse and Clemson didn't play, but this seems like a massive overreaction to the Notre Dame win last week. We can't forget this Notre Dame team lost at home to Marshall and Stanford so far this season. I don't believe this line would be this low if Notre Dame didn't win convincingly last week against what I think is an overrated Syracuse team. I think Dabo and Clemson find motivation with all the people saying they shouldn't be 4th in the first iteration of the CFP rankings. The Tigers win this one in South Bend, 27-21. Take the Tigers.

Texas -2.5 @ #13 Kansas St

This feels like a buy low spot on Texas and a sell high spot for Kansas St. KSU is coming off a massive beat down of Oklahoma St. 48-0 at home last week while Texas was on a bye. Texas is sitting at 5-3 but really could be as good as 8-0. I'm taking Sarkisian and Texas off of a bye to prepare to go into Lawrence and win this game behind Bijan Robinson and that offense. They get enough stops on defense and force a turnover late in the game to win this one 31-26. Take the Longhorns.

Marshall/Old Dominion Under 46.5

This year has resulted in both of these teams having not so good offenses with pretty solid defenses. Marshall has the 15th ranked defense in the country in terms of points allowed per game and has the 91st ranked offense in the country in terms of points scored per game. Old Dominion is on a similar offense which is ranked 92nd in the country in terms of points scored per game. I expect the ODU defense to play well at home and Marshalls defense to keep playing solid like they have all year. This is one where I bet and probably dont watch. The final in this one is going to be somewhere in the ballpark ODU 21-19. Take the Under.

Henry Porter (12-15 record)

Indiana/#16 Penn State over 50.5

We’re getting in the lab this week to find us three easy winners and what better way to start than a Big Ten over. Indiana has been swiss cheese this year as they rank 100th in the nation in scoring defense giving up 31 points per game. I’m sure Illinois is still kicking themselves over dropping that game to Indiana early this season. On the other side of the ball, Indiana scores 25 points per game and ranks fourth in the country in plays per game. The Nittany Lions will be looking to bounce back from their hard fought defeat to Ohio State by going up and down the field in Bloomington. Penn State averages 33 points per game and ranks 57th out of 131 teams in plays per game. These two teams have a combined 10-6 over record on the season. All of these factors combined with a total that just barely gets over 50 has this play being my favorite pick of the week. Penn State takes care of business, 37-23, and easily cashes this over.

San Diego State/UNLV under 49

These two teams have a combined unders record of 9-7, and you have to take into account that the totals for each of these two teams are usually set fairly low. UNLV ranks 114th in plays per game while San Diego State ranks 127th. On a non-gambling note, watch a different game this weekend while you follow this score on your phone; if you enjoy good college football. The Aztecs are giving up 23 points per game and scoring just 20 on average. The Rebels are averaging 28 points per game but have been held to 14 points or less on three occasions. I think this is going to be another one of those games with SDSU producing long, methodical drives and UNLV struggling to score. I’ll take the Aztecs to win at home, 27-14.

Georgia Southern/South Alabama over 60.5

Georgia Southern has been a scoring machine this year ranking 20th in the nation at 37 points per game. On top of that, the Eagles are eighth in the country in pace of play which means whether they score or not, they are moving the ball quickly. The offense is the reason this team is 5-3 right now as the defense is 99th in college football giving up 30 points per game. South Alabama is still vying for a Sun Belt title game appearance and they know they likely have to win out with Troy holding the head to head tiebreaker over them. South Alabama actually has a decent defense but with the potent offense that Georgia Southern has, the offense will have to come to play. The Jaguars are 43rd in pace of play and put up just over 30 points per game. With this game being in Statesboro, I like GSU to cover but still think South Alabama gets the win and gets our over, 37-34.