Week 12 College Football Best Bets

Roger Murdock (20-13 record)

Louisville -4 vs NC State

What happened to NC State last week? Inexplicable home loss to a terrible BC team. Now they have to go on the road to face a frisky Louisville team. Louisville is very athletic and can get pressure on the quarterback. NC State is starting either banged up freshman MJ Morris or backup Jack Chambers. Malik Cunningham may not play but the Cards should get it done either way.

#6 LSU/UAB under 50.5

Brian Kelly put in a hilarious coaching performance last week. He was clearly a man afraid to lose. Well, it worked and LSU is locked in to face Georgia in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, meaning this UAB game means nothing for LSU as long as they win. A 1 point win or a 50 point win doesn’t make a difference to their season. So I expect another scared effort from Kelly. LSU will run the ball, grind the clock, and pull the starters as soon as they can. UAB just won’t be able to move the ball against this LSU defense. I’m envisioning a snoozer 24-3 type of game here.

#16 UCLA +2.5 vs #7 USC

Huge game for both teams in LA. USC needs to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive but are facing a gauntlet of their two toughest games of the year and a potential PAC12 title game. But this USC team is still a year or two of stacking recruits from being on that level. Their defense is non-existent and they have been bad on the road. Meanwhile UCLA is coming off of an awful look-ahead loss and would love to spoil USC’s season before Notre Dame can. UCLA gets more stops and wins in a game that comes down to the wire.

Henry Porter (17-16 record)

UTSA/Rice over 56.5

These are two teams set to play the last of their conference games before transitioning to the AAC next season. Rice needs one more win to become bowl eligible while UTSA just can't lose their last two games and they will be in the C-USA Championship game. UTSA is second in the entire nation in pace of play, as they have been no strangers to putting up points this season. The Roadrunners offense is averaging 36 points per game while Rice is averaging 25 and giving up 35 points per game. The over is 8-2 in Rice games this season and 6-4 in UTSA contests. The numbers haven’t let us down the last few weeks and I think that will continue. UTSA wins a close one against a more desperate Rice team, 40-35.

#17 UCF -15.5 vs Navy

I was on Navy +16.5 last week as they fell to Notre Dame by just three points. Navy’s next game is their Super Bowl against Army, and last week was their biggest game of the year thus far against the Fighting Irish. Sandwiched between the two is an away game at UCF with an 11 AM kickoff. I see this as a major letdown spot for the Midshipmen as UCF has a ton more to play for. The Knights know they can’t slip up in their last two games if they want to be apart of the AAC conference championship game. UCF is 7-3 ATS and I fully expect that to continue this weekend. They will want this game to be over by halftime and Navy’s triple option will not be able to mount a comeback. Knights win in Orlando, 34-13.

Missouri/New Mexico State under 46.5

As I was placing some bets for this weekend, the total for this game dropped a full point; and for good reason. New Mexico State is 131st (dead last) in the country in pace of play this season while Missouri is 86th. The stat “yards per play” helped us in hitting an over last week, so let’s see if it can help us with this under. The Tigers are 98th in yards per play while the Aggies sit at 100th. The under has been popular with these two teams as eight of Missouri’s ten games have gone under while six of NMSU’s nine games have gone under. Both teams need to win their last two games to become bowl eligible so I expect a focus on defense throughout the game. Missouri has more talent and will get the win at home, 28-12.

Peter Cornell (14-16-3 record)

Charlotte/Louisiana Tech Over 64.5

The final game in the what seems like a 10 year career for Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds. His final year has had its ups and downs but as for the rest of the team, yikes. The Niners have been so bad this year it has resulted in the firing of head coach Will Healy. The defense ranks dead last in the country in total defense (131 out of 131). All of this said, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have been on a very similar trajectory this year, horrible defense (ranked 126 out of 131 in total defense) and an alright offense. I expect this to be a high flying game with literally no defense being played. Chris Reynolds and the Niners light it up with his last game in Charlotte. The 49ers win 42-35. Take the Over.

Louisiana Lafayette/Florida State Under 52.5

Talk about 2 defenses that have been really solid this year. The Seminoles have turned out to have one of the better defenses in the country ranking 11th in the country in total defense. The Ragin' Cajuns also bolster a solid defense ranking 40th in the country in total defense. A Week 12 non-conference matchup that kicks off at noon smells like a sleepy game to me. I expect FSU to keep the ball on the ground and get out of this game healthy and ready for next weeks tilt against Florida. FSU wins easy but in a low scoring game 33-16. Take the Under.

James Madison -9 vs Georgia State

This is a classic game of something has to give. James Madison has one of the best defenses in the country especially against the run where it ranks 2nd in the country giving up only 77 yards per game. On the other hand, Georgia St has one of the best rushing attacks in the country ranking 7th in the country with 242 rushing yards per game. The pick gives away where I think the give will come from. The Dukes have also had one of the better offenses in the country ranking 28th in total offense. I expect the Dukes to shut down the run and be able to move the ball plenty to cover this number. James Madison wins this one handedly at home 34-16. Take the Dukes.